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Trumpcession…

I have been pondering what to write about ‘Liberation day’ since April 2- the day itself. Trump unleashed the stupidest tariff war, writing off over six trillion dollars of stock market value in the two days that followed. The stock market isn’t the economy but any time the stock market drops 10% in two days it is time to be concerned.

I’m going to try to break this down a bit for myself and hopefully doing so will help others who are attempting to parse the events. What follows is an expression of my opinion based on actual analysis: you may disagree with me freely, but I am reasonably secure in my understanding of the facts. This is a long one- Buckle up, and feel free to use the table of contents to jump around to what interests you!

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Ubergeek’s predictions for 2025

I’ve been rather quiet here during December. It was a difficult month with the loss of my wife’s Mom Celina and my Sister Judy. I’d classify this as perhaps the saddest December in my life.

Irene and I had our usual quiet Christmas, short a few decorations. We did put up a tree, and I made a turkey dinner for Christmas day- but other than that it was just quiet times together for us. That’s perfectly fine and more or less normal, but both of us are struggling with emotions which casts a shadow on things.

I’m starting to think about what comes next, and that includes thinking about the upcoming year in general. I looked back through my blog and found that, as far as I can determine, I have only given ‘New Year’ predictions once since I started writing here. Back in 2007 I prognosticated about what 2008 would bring and, skimming through that post, I think my guesses were largely correct. I was even right about Google, shares of which dropped about 50% during 2008- but over the longer term I was very wrong on that one.

Predictions for 2025 might be fun: I see that Wilhelm over on The Ancient Gaming Noob has been doing this kind of thing consistently for quite a few years. I don’t have any intent to reach that level of ludicrous detail, but maybe I can make this into an annual tradition of my own. Certainly I should be able to do better than once every 17 years.

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