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I have been pondering what to write about ‘Liberation day’ since April 2- the day itself. Trump unleashed the stupidest tariff war, writing off over six trillion dollars of stock market value in the two days that followed. The stock market isn’t the economy but any time the stock market drops 10% in two days it is time to be concerned.

I’m going to try to break this down a bit for myself and hopefully doing so will help others who are attempting to parse the events. What follows is an expression of my opinion based on actual analysis: you may disagree with me freely, but I am reasonably secure in my understanding of the facts. This is a long one- Buckle up, and feel free to use the table of contents to jump around to what interests you!