Chris, I would like to think your hypothesis that social media as it currently exists will fail is correct. That is an optimistic viewpoint that implies some kind of fundamental goodness in humanity beyond our seemingly overwhelming need to be part of a group.
I think my perception is coloured by what has happened globally but particularly in the U.S. in recent years. Hatred and fear of ‘the different’ is the core tenet of the human tribal structure. Social media engagement mechanisms seem tailor-made to encourage formation and growth of like-minded communities around such viewpoints. It seems as if we aren’t communicating across boundaries but instead are building the boundaries higher.
I perceive that people don’t care if the group they belong to wants to create internment camps for ‘foreigners’, stop providing medical care for our elderly, or remove all life-saving vaccines from society. So long as they are all part of the same team, that’s all stuff that happens to the ‘bad people’: the ‘others’. Maybe some of the people with that tribal affiliation actually like those features of their clan. But I suspect… hope… the majority were suckered in by the desire to belong, facilitated by the social media engagement engines that surround us.
Can humanity pull its head out of its ass in time to realize that our worst instincts are being played upon by automated social networks? I don’t think AI ‘content creators’ pretending to be the perfect friend directing us to exactly the right engaging content to maximize profit will make things any better. But hopefully you are right, and the worst aspects of social media will be burned off by some kind of natural selection towards cooperation and communication for good ends instead of simply profit.