If nothing else his timeline is wrong. I fully expect that most of the computers I am using now – all but one XP machines – will still be exactly where they are in 5 years. There is too much established infrastructure for their to be complete shifts in computing in 5 year spans like there used to be.

It’s like cars: even if tomorrow someone came out with an electric car for $30,000 that could go 80 mph and had a range of 500km on a single 4 hour charge and the batteries lasted 10 years most cars on the road would still be internal combustion 5 years from now. People can’t afford to just change what they drive overnight, and neither can corporations and people afford to just ditch their computers even if something better comes along.

Handwriting recognition … if it worked, might replace a keyboard and mouse, but it doesn’t and despite what the pundits said we are not all using tablet PC’s now.

Heck, we are still using qwerty keyboards! Remember when we were all going to be using Dvorak? Or the weird knobby one handed things?

Not going to happen